TRACKERS

Posted at 1:28 P.M. ET

Both the Rasmussen and Gallup trackers are now up for the day.  As noted below, Rasmussen has the race tied.  Gallup, which had Obama up three yesterday, now has him up four, which it calls a statistically significant lead, and is consistent with the CBS and Quinnipiac polls posted yesterday.

There is now no question, based on trends, not a daily snapshot, that Obama's position has improved importantly in the last week.  That doesn't mean it can't be reversed, but I think we have to face the music.  I'm only making an informed guess, but surely the economic shocks have had their impact.  And Sarah Palin's first sit-down, with the sneering Charlie Gibson, didn't do her much good.  Gallup says:

The presidential race has essentially devolved back to a structure very similar to what pertained throughout the months of June and July, during which time Obama consistently averaged a three percentage point lead over McCain. There have been fairly significant shifts over the last several weeks, including periods of time in and around the conventions during which both Obama and McCain established leads, and times when the race was essentially tied. But beginning this week, it appears the voters have settled, for the moment, back into the familiar pattern in which the race remains close with a slight tilt towards Obama.

Let me stress that this is one pollster's view.  Gallup is interpreting its own polls, and must both defend and employ the results. 

The McCain balloon was punctured in the last week.  And the McCain team began to get sloppy with facts and public statements.

McCain is surrounded by sharp people who've been instrumental in bringing him back from the political near-dead.  Guys, work your miracles.

And start planning a cross-country whistlestop, Truman style, with McCain and Palin together, and with a chance for voters to come on board and meet them at stops across the land.

September 18, 2008.